Vice President Harris‘s urgent call to the DEA to expedite the rescheduling of cannabis marks a crucial turning point in national drug policy, as analyzed in a comprehensive equity research report by Zuanic & Associates.
The report delves into the implications of Harris’s push as well as the Department of Health and Human Services‘ (HHS) engagement with the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel on the complexities of altering cannabis’s legal status.
In addition, senior analyst Pablo Zuanic addresses critical industry questions, covering FDA oversight, prescription criteria, insurance reimbursement, and the effects of legalization and rescheduling on imports and insurance coverage.
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Legal Landscape And DEA Dynamics
Zuanic looks at the DEA’s debate over cannabis’s medicinal benefits and the call for further research on its effects. He contends that the HHS’s thorough 252-page document meets the DEA’s criteria for scientific evidence of medical efficacy, possibly facilitating rescheduling.
He also discusses the implications of rescheduling cannabis without federal legalization, highlighting its impracticality and the potential benefits of federal legality, including improved banking access, stock exchange listings, and insurance reimbursements.
Prognosis And Probabilities
Zuanic forecasts a 51% chance that the DEA will announce cannabis rescheduling, yet details might wait until a potential second Biden term. He also raises the possibility of DEA resistance or inaction by June, amidst election-year dynamics.
The 2023 hint of reclassification spurred a market surge, notably boosting the MSOS ETF by 21% and elevating stocks like StateHouse STHZF, Columbia Care CCHWF, Jushi JUSHF, and AYR Wellness AYRWF, with financially weaker companies reaping disproportionate gains.
Zuanic favors moving medical cannabis to Schedule III, descheduling recreational use and allowing states to manage cannabis, which could unlock tax relief, banking access, and stock exchange listings for U.S. firms.
However, he voices concerns about the White House’s detailed planning for such changes, suggesting that stakeholder lobbying and the complex regulatory landscape could temper sector growth, despite recent optimism.
“Under this best-case scenario logic, the benefits would go beyond tax relief (significant on their own if 280E no longer applies), as, theoretically, given this de facto legalization, banks with a federal charter could service the industry, and even US stock exchanges could uplist US plant-touching companies,” Zuanic wrote in a report from 2023.
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4 Key Questions Addressed by Zuanic
- Will FDA Oversight on Marijuana Change? The growing need for regulatory guidance on medical marijuana may lead the FDA to update its policies to manage the drug’s complexities. Given marijuana’s potential rescheduling, it’s expected to remain under the FDA’s rigorous safety and standards oversight.
- Will Prescription Specificity and Insurance Reimbursement Change with Rescheduling? If cannabis moves to Schedule III, the FDA may have to specify which medical conditions qualify for its prescription.
- Will Imports be Allowed with Legalization? Should federal legalization occur, it could facilitate the importation of medical cannabis, aligning it with the regulatory framework of other prescription drugs. This raises the question of how federal legalization might affect the current market for unregulated imports.
- Would Rescheduling Open the Door to Insurance Reimbursement? Yes, however, it necessitates federal legalization first, followed by the approval from both private and government-owned insurance entities for reimbursement—a process expected to progress slowly but is not discounted over time.
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